Tuesday, November 17, 2009

News 11 16 2009

Mizuho holds bearish forecast for the dollar / yen

As the currency analysts Mizuho, all indicators on daily charts the dollar / yen indicate bearish sentiment couples. The bank believes that trade within the formation of a "triangle", which is now the pair will soon end, and the dollar / yen falls dramatically to the key support level of 87.00, and then to a level of 85.00 in the week. As a strategy for bank analysts prefer to sell on the best exchange rate, reinforcing the position at 90.00, with a stop above 90.75 and short-term goals of 89.29/18 and 88.25/88.00. At the moment pair dollar / yen is at around 89.47.

BNP Paribas recommends buying euro / franc

According to currency analysts BNP Paribas, the interest of the Swiss National Bank to currency intervention is likely to weaken, as the restoration of the Swiss economy is gaining momentum. However, consider a bank, in the case of a verbal intervention by the Central Bank of Switzerland, the reaction of pair euro / franc, which is now closer to the bottom of the range, can be quite significant. Thus, reducing the euro / franc at 1.5080 area in the bank is seen as a good opportunity to buy a pair. Currently, the euro / franc is trading at around 1.5090.

UBS recommended buying the dollar / yen

As the currency analysts UBS, the Minister of Finance of Japan Fuji said that he was satisfied that the yield on Japanese government bonds again began to decline. As you know, since, as Fuji joined as finance minister, his views on the dollar / yen has changed - at the bank believe that Fuji and his adviser Goten would not tolerate further strengthening the national currency. Bank analysts also note concerns regarding the sustainability of the state budget in Japan, and believe that in such circumstances, the dollar / yen should buy, not sell. At the moment pair dollar / yen is trading at 89.54

Financial sector reform is part of enhanced phase

In a statement the head of the Bank of Spain, Miguel Fernandez Ordonezom (Miguel Fernández Ordóñez) refers to the desire to reduce by one-third the number of Spanish savings and credit institutions in less than a year that marks the beginning of a strengthened phase of financial sector reforms.

From the moment that the Spanish authorities attempted to help the suffering with Caja Castilla La Mancha (CCM) during the emergency operation at the weekend in late March, the negotiation of mergers and acquisitions in order to save the country from other unreliable creditors proceeded with frustrating slowness, according to bankers and government officials.

Contributed to the list of commercial banks such as Santander and BBVA, still seemed more viable than most of their international colleagues.

However, many of the 45 banks that were not included in the list of approved stock exchange turnover, and often under political influence of the regional savings bank, succumbed to the increasingly negative influence because of bad loans to builders and homebuyers in the boom years.

Santiago Lopez Diaz (Santiago López Díaz), a bank analyst at Credit Suisse in its critical report on the banks said that Dumb of them increased their branch network in recent years, which angered participated in the bankers. They have quadrupled their total assets in a decade, developers have increased the loan by a factor of 20, recording the extraordinary growth of 43% on these loans during the period between 2002 and 2007.

At the moment, this has led to an increase in bad loans, which require more investment, this effect of pressure on the merger and the growing concerns of foreign creditors, who own a greater part of the € 450 billion of mortgage securities issued by Spanish authorities.

Fernandez Ordonez told the Financial Times that the 15 banks should be merged with others in the spring of next year, also, he intends to use the new Spanish law "Frob", which established the Foundation for the orderly restructuring of banks, for such purpose, almost $ 99 billion.

For the first time in postwar history of Spain's banks are in the spotlight. "All previous crises were due to banks", - said Ordonez. "The current crisis has paralyzed the banking system, a new phenomenon and we need to adopt a new law."

Two of the expected merger - is rescued from the CCM Cajastur, and Unicaja with Cajasur, probably, will be held with the participation of € 4 billion, which had accumulated a bank deposit insurance fund, however, that money would soon be exhausted.

With the present moment, the Bank of Spain wants stronger bank structures financed acquisitions from its own resources, which is expected to occur between different banking institutions in Navarra, Rioja, Aragon and the Canary Islands, or the same for this purpose is proposed to hold a Frob .

Grants for the taxpayers' money Frob will be available only as a last resort; Ordonez also said that the authorities expect instead to see the restructuring and closure of branches to reduce costs.

Partially can say thank you to the Bank of Spain for its strict limits and closely monitored, due to which taxpayers do not spend anything to help the banks, "said Ordonez. "In our case, is very profitable, when 80% of large and medium-sized financial institutions in relatively prosperous" - he said.

Until now, property prices in Spain fall, we're ahead of many mergers and acquisitions in the financial sector. Thus Ordonez described the difficult task of supporting the reform of the banking sector, which does not affect the Spanish taxpayers.


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