Producer prices have fallen, but consumer prices are unlikely to decrease

Today went Rosstat data, according to which producer prices of industrial production in Russia in January-October 2009 increased by 13,9% and inflation at the consumer market was 8.1%. Left commented on the financial data analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich.
Producer prices are a leading indicator of prices in the consumer market. This variability is reflected in consumer inflation with a delay. Retail players are often passed on to consumers the increased cost burden on the purchase of goods. But at the same time, as seen from the figures this year, it happens to a much lesser extent, because not only raw materials included in the price of goods and services.
In the conditions of Russia is somewhat different: if the prices of industrial goods and services vary greatly with the cycles of economic activity, the consumer prices, at best, do not grow or equal to zero. Month to month it strongly influences the dynamics, distorting it. So, by October last year, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, producers cut prices by 1,8% (in spite of the accumulated YTD growth of 13.9%), while consumer prices rose by 9,7%.
Very telling in this regard in January this year, when producer prices fell more than 3%, while the consumer rose by 2,0%. Since Russia's economy went in the direction of growth, and the government is planning greater spending for November and December, it most likely will increase consumer prices by 0,8-1,0% per month (the more so that producer prices rose consistently from February to September). This is historically the standard inflation rate for these months.
This year we are likely to get consumer prices by 10% per year. Inflation next year is likely to remain at 10-12% rather than 7 - 8% projected by the government